For both D1 and D2. After upsets in the first round, do you go all chalk or ride the lower seeds?
Given the energy required to upset the higher seed in the first round combined with your second round opponent using less energy to secure their first round, it is very difficult for a team to pull off back to back upsets. The first round match ups are critical to long term success. If you have a chance to earn a top four seed you are essentially gifted a scrimmage. Colorado rested a majority of their starters and their second wave did enough to beat Texas State 8-5. Chapman used two goalies and eleven different players scored in their 16-2 win over Michigan State. Conversely, Western Washington, a #12 seed, needed overtime to topple Grand Valley State. At least their quarterfinal game is later in the day on Tuesday so they’ll have an extra couple of hours to soak in the ice bath. Stanford needed a full game to drop BYU and is rewarded with Chapman, forty five minutes earlier than they played BYU. The MCLA tournament is a cruel mistress if you don’t have depth.
The safe play is all chalk which is what we went with below.
#1 Concordia vs. #8 St. John’s
#4 North Dakota State vs. #12 Western Washington
#6 Dayton vs. #14 Siena Heights
#2 St. Thomas vs. #7 Florida Gulf Coast
#1 Grand Canyon vs. #9 Cal Poly
#4 Chapman vs. #12 Stanford
#2 Arizona State vs. #7 Virginia Tech
#3 Colorado vs. #11 Georgia Tech
The team most likely to garner an upset in D2 is St. John’s over Concordia. St. John’s has been here before while Concordia is still very much the new kid on the block.
Keep an eye out Virginia Tech in D1. Their defense manhandled San Diego State in 6v6 long enough for the offense to get going. They’ll play a similar team, albeit with a vastly superior FOGO, in Arizona State tomorrow.